Analyses on the effects of migration on the labour market

30th August, 2016

The 17^th volume of The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks (2016). Edited by Zsuzsa Blaskó and Károly Fazekas.

The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks series, introducing the current characteristics of the Hungarian labour market and Hungarian employment policy, was launched by the Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the MTA in 2000. The editors of the publication endeavour to provide information on the latest results of the Hungarian labour market which readers can put to good use. Continuing their previous editorial practice, they selected an area they thought might be highly relevant, which is why they decided to focus on the topic of migration or, to be precise, its effects on the labour market.

Migration from the Hungarian perspective

Since 2015, it has primarily been the flow of migrants arriving in Europe that has drawn attention to international migration and Hungary’s role in it. In the countries concerned, migration has a non-negligible influence on the structure and levels of employment and on the relative wage rate. Most of the studies in the yearbook examine the processes from a Hungarian perspective. Analysing migration from Hungary, researchers focused on the labour market motivations of migration-related decisions and on short- and long-term consequences. Immigration, on the other hand, raises different questions for the accepting country, i.e. what effects a larger flow of immigrants would have on the employment of inhabitants, on wage levels and on social services.

The opening study by Ágnes Hárs offers a comprehensive survey of emigration, repatriation and immigration, examining the situation of Hungary from regional aspects, in comparison to the other new EU members. The main conclusion of the statistics-based study is that Hungary, although joining the east-to-west migration flows in Europe at a later stage, with significant growth, has reached the average annual level of emigration in the region, which is in no way, however, counterbalanced by immigration. It should be noted that the vast majority of migrants coming to Hungary in the examined period were Hungarians from the surrounding countries.

Demography of migration, emigration of doctors, Hungarians in the UK

The second chapter on emigration is made up of studies discussing indirect labour market consequences, applying various approaches and relying on diverse sources of data. The expected influence on the labour market can be determined from the degree and dynamics of emigration and the social composition of migrants. Endre Sik and Blanka Szeitl present migration intention tendencies, or ‘migration potential’. The study by Zsuzsa Blaskó and Irén Gödri, as well as that of Ágnes Hárs and Dávid Simon, is about migration in action. While the former, with the help of different data sources, examines the social and demographic composition of a wide range of emigrating Hungarians, the latter, based on recruitment data, gives a detailed analysis of changes in the number and composition of a narrower group of migrants, namely, those finding work abroad – of which a special (and, considering the social consequences, also important) part are those leaving their families (including minors) behind for a job abroad. Families concerned with this form of migration are quantified in a study by Zsuzsa Blaskó and Laura Szabó.

Understanding the expected labour market effects of migration is further promoted by writings concentrating on a specific professional market segment of emigrants. Two studies in the yearbook (by Ágnes Hárs and Dávid Simon, and by Júlia Varga, respectively) deal with the migration of doctors, in which they discuss how, and through which factors it has changed in the past fifteen years or so in Hungary. Christian Moreh’s analysis focuses on Hungarians migrating to the United Kingdom, showing the key trends of Hungarian migration to the UK and the special labour market characteristics of Hungarians living in the UK.

Encouragement of repatriation and labour market effects of immigration

Besides losses, emigration may also have beneficial effects for the home country, such as the income sent home by immigrants, the amount of which is considerable even on a national scale, and the human capital accumulated abroad and invested in the home country by returning migrants. László Kajdi analyses the volume changes in income sent home, touching upon the difficulties of such measurements. While Ágnes Horváth provides a comprehensive survey of repatriation to Hungary, describing the key conclusions of repatriation studies from other countries of the region, Judit Kálmán discusses the international experience gained regarding public policy programs promoting repatriation.

The third chapter deals with immigration and surveys the labour market effects in the accepting countries. The studies that describe trends in Hungary use census data. Irén Gödri points out the factors formulating the chances of employment for immigrants in Hungary and discusses how those chances vary for different groups of immigrants. From her analysis it turns out that labour market indicators for immigrants in Hungary do not lag behind those of Hungarians; these immigrants even tend to excel due to a higher level of education within this group. Róbert Károlyi’s boxed texts provide further details on the subject. From János Köllő’s study it appears that, although the labour market advantage immigrants have over the domestic population in the 15-64 age group is more of an exception in Europe, regarding a wider age group, in several European countries the increase in the number of immigrants contributed to the significant growth of employment before the crisis to a fairly considerable extent.

An assessment of the professional literature by Katalin Bördős, Márton Csillag and Anna Orosz summarises the conclusions of researches into the influences of immigration on the employment and wage level of employees in the accepting country. These provide proof that, in the short term, the effects of immigration on the labour market are negligible, while in the long term, it has positive consequences. Analysing international data, Dániel Horn and István Kónya examine the relationship between cultural and economic assimilation. Their analysis of sixteen countries confirms the conclusion drawn in Irén Gödri’s study: linguistic assimilation is an important harbinger of immigrants’ success in the labour market. In the closing essay of the yearbook, Judit Tóth describes and reveals the most important legal categories appearing in migration discourse.

The authors intended to present the ever-changing processes of migration up to the closest possible time before the release of the publication. In several cases this actually means that the studies analyse the latest data, which became available at the beginning of 2016. In other cases, however, they had to go back to the 2011 census to find answers to certain questions. The issue of topicality regarding the analysed data naturally arises, but the editors formed the opinion that due to the significance of the questions examined, the publication of these analyses could not be disregarded.