Director of the French Institute of International Relationships, Thierry de Montbrial urged structural reforms and changing the mechanisms of decision-making within EU member states in his lecture held at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. According to the researcher, unless a solution is found for the crisis of euro, the EU may begin to disintegrate.

 

As the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 stipulates, the establishment of the European Union was the result of a political decision. Although economists knew that the optimal conditions for establishing a monetary union were not there at the time, the first decade of the euro is seen today as a success story, said Thierry de Montbrial recalling the birth of the common currency. Invited by HAS President József Pálinkás, the French economist's lecture was organised by HAS' Centre of Social Sciences and the French Institute. In his opening address, history professor and doctor of HAS György Granasztói called Thierry de Montbrial an outstanding individual of both the French and the international intellectual world, one who maintains that even the most pessimistic analysts were impressed by the success of the monetary union during the 90s. Drawing up a  timeline of the history of the euro, the economist pointed out that problems started to emerge when, blinded by initial success, the most „eminent" countries of the EU began to neglect the criteria stated in the Maastricht Treaty. The consequences of this easy-going attitude did not immediately become evident. But the monetary crisis starting in 2007 made these problems painfully obvious.

 

While Greece's intake into the euro zone, in spite of the fact that the country did not fulfill the pre-requisitions of membership, was clearly a mistake, if one or two states decided to leave the euro zone today, the implications would be unpredictable. "A complex process in itself, such a move would bring about a giant wave of speculation all over the world", he said. The French researcher therefore urged quick and effective interventions within the Union. Besides taking steps towards more economical interventions, structural reforms are also to be undertaken in order to create a budgetary balance. The economist believes that the decision-making processes of the EU, consisting of seventeen countries of the euro zone and twenty-seven member states in all, must be strengthened as well, and he urged the European Central Bank to be more courageous in his operations. "The ECB should buy sovereign bonds, i.e. funds issued by member states."

 

 

 

According to Thierry de Montbrial, in this "multi-player game" a common minimum must be reached and everybody must realise that disagreement costs more than agreement, and a lack of consensus will come at a very high price for all of us, i.e. the economic-political crisis may intensify seriously shaking the European Union itself.